Bitcoin Price Hits $123K ATH as Retail Caution Persists

Bitcoin price has reached a new all-time high of $123,000, marking a significant 13% gain over the past week. As the third week of July kicks off, this milestone has ignited fresh discussions around the possibility of a euphoric market phase. But data suggests the sentiment remains more nuanced than it appears on the surface.

Retail Investors Still on the Sidelines

Despite the historic rally, CryptoQuant’s proprietary Greed Indicator remains at neutral levels. This suggests that widespread retail participation — a hallmark of full-blown market euphoria — has not yet materialized. The current rise in Bitcoin price seems largely driven by institutional capital, particularly through substantial inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Supporting this view is the rHODL ratio, a metric that tracks long-term holder behavior and wealth distribution. Currently sitting at 32%, it signals that many small-scale investors, often referred to as “prawns,” are maintaining a cautious approach. Historically, euphoric peaks in the crypto cycle occur only after significant retail inflow joins institutional momentum — a scenario not yet fully visible in the present rally.

Institutional Flows Lead the Charge

Market observers note that the ongoing uptrend is being steered primarily by institutional buying. Retail investors appear to be observing from the sidelines, possibly still influenced by past market cycles and volatility. Yet there are early signs of change: the rHODL ratio has begun climbing in recent days, indicating a possible shift toward retail re-engagement.

This growing participation may mark the early stages of a retail-driven phase — what some analysts have dubbed the “last dance” — that could propel Bitcoin price into a parabolic move if momentum builds.\n\n

No Signs of Panic as Bitcoin Price Climbs

Interestingly, despite Bitcoin’s sharp ascent, there’s been little evidence of panic selling. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) shows that while some short-term profit-taking occurred around July 3–4, the ratio has remained comfortably above 1. This reflects healthy market behavior, where profits are being taken gradually rather than via a widespread rush to sell.\n\n

This controlled approach to profit realization supports an environment conducive to further price discovery. It also suggests that confidence remains high among current holders, contributing to the broader bullish outlook for Bitcoin price.\n\n

On the Edge of Euphoria

While the market has not yet entered a full-blown euphoria phase, signs of increasing retail interest and constructive price behavior indicate that conditions are building toward it. The next few weeks may be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin price will maintain its upward trajectory and move into the next phase of the bull market.

For now, the crypto market stands on the brink — with one foot in caution and the other stepping toward euphoria.