### Climate Change Intensifies Deadly Landslides in Kerala’s Wayanad District

A recent rapid attribution study revealed that climate change has amplified the intensity of rainfall, leading to deadly landslides in Kerala’s ecologically sensitive Wayanad district. According to a global team of 24 scientists from India, Sweden, the US, and the UK, the heavy rainfall was 10% more intense due to climate change. Over 140 mm of rain fell in a single day on already saturated soils, causing catastrophic landslides and floods that claimed at least 231 lives.

The region where the landslides occurred is recognized as the highest-risk area for such events in Wayanad. Maja Vahlberg, a climate risk consultant at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, emphasized the urgency of preparing for even heavier downpours as the climate continues to warm.

Researchers from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group utilized high-resolution climate models to assess the impact of human-induced climate change on rainfall intensity. Their findings suggest a 10% increase in rainfall intensity due to climate change, with an additional 4% rise expected if global temperatures increase by another two degrees Celsius.

Although the study area’s small and mountainous terrain introduces some uncertainty to the model results, the increase in extreme one-day rainfall events aligns with broader scientific evidence linking a warmer atmosphere to heavier downpours. According to scientists, the atmosphere’s moisture-holding capacity increases by about 7% for every one-degree Celsius rise in global temperature.

The earth’s surface temperature has already risen by approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius due to elevated levels of greenhouse gases like Carbon Dioxide and Methane. This warming trend is worsening extreme weather events globally, including droughts, heatwaves, and floods.

The WWA scientists also highlighted that factors such as quarrying and a significant reduction in forest cover may have increased the slopes’ vulnerability to landslides during heavy rainfall. Other researchers have linked the Wayanad landslides to forest cover loss, mining activities, and prolonged rainfall followed by intense precipitation.

S Abhilash, director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), noted that the warming Arabian Sea is contributing to the formation of deep cloud systems, resulting in extremely heavy rainfall and increased landslide risk in Kerala.

According to an ISRO report, 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India are in Kerala,