Over the weekend, crypto markets held relatively steady but slipped again on Monday morning as another potentially volatile week begins. Last week’s market fluctuations were influenced by US President Trump’s unexpected tariff announcements, though there was some relief following encouraging inflation data, with the CPI report coming in below expectations. However, the Consumer Sentiment Index continued its three-month decline, reaching its lowest level since November 2022 amid growing recession fears.
“Wednesday marks the second Fed interest rate decision of 2025, at a pivotal point in time,” commented the Kobeissi Letter.
### Economic Events March 17 to 21
February’s Retail Sales report is set for release on Monday, providing insights into consumer spending on durable and non-durable goods, a key indicator of economic health and demand-side inflationary factors. Reports on industrial production, covering areas like manufacturing, mining, utilities, and housing, will be released on Tuesday, although these are expected to have a low impact. All attention will be on the US central bank on Wednesday, with policymakers likely to hold interest rates steady at the upcoming policy meeting, as Fed officials remain cautious about making any monetary policy changes while awaiting the impact of Trump’s economic strategies. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, there is a 99% chance that rates will remain unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%.
Key Events This Week:
1. February Retail Sales data – Monday
2. February Housing Starts data – Tuesday
3. Fed Interest Rate Decision/Statement – Wednesday
4. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
5. Philly Fed Manufacturing data – Thursday
6. February Existing Home Sales…
RBC Global Asset Management’s Andrzej Skiba stated that more tariffs are likely forthcoming, noting, “This will be inflationary, and the Fed won’t likely be able to cut rates in this environment.” It was reported that Trump’s “short-term pain” plan is probably aimed at weakening markets with the longer-term goal of reducing inflation and interest rates.
### Crypto Market Outlook
The crypto market capitalization has decreased by 3.3% today, dropping to $2.8 trillion, with declines intensifying during Monday morning trading in Asia. Bitcoin fell to $82,000 before a slight recovery to $83,000. The asset remains down nearly 11% over the past two weeks. Ethereum remains in bear market territory, having dipped below $1,900 again, with few signs of recovery. Most altcoins are in the red, with Solana (SOL) and Pi Network (PI) experiencing larger losses, although Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Polkadot (DOT) showed minor gains.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 16, 2025
