Bitcoin’s price faced resistance this week, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum in the market. However, the asset finds a significant support range around the $80K level, which is anticipated to sustain the price in the short term.
**Technical Analysis**
By Shayan
**The Daily Chart**
Bitcoin recently encountered a notable rejection after briefly surpassing the 100-day moving average, suggesting a false breakout and insufficient bullish momentum. This reinforces the existing bearish sentiment. However, BTC is nearing a significant support range, including the psychological $80K level and the 0.5 ($84K) – 0.618 ($78K) Fibonacci retracement zone. This crucial area is expected to act as a support zone, potentially leading to a new consolidation phase around the $80K mark. Under these conditions, Bitcoin is likely to continue its decline toward $80K in the short term, where future price action will determine the next significant move.
**The 4-Hour Chart**
In the shorter timeframe, Bitcoin encountered heightened selling pressure at the upper boundary of its descending channel, resulting in a strong rejection. The price is currently testing short-term support at $83K, aligning with a prior swing low. While some buying interest may arise at this level, the overall market conditions lack bullish momentum, and sellers remain dominant. Consequently, BTC is likely to fall below $83K and move toward the channel’s mid-boundary at $80K, a critical inflection point. While it may support the price and initiate a consolidation phase, a drop below this level could trigger a deeper decline toward the $77K threshold.
**On-chain Analysis**
By Shayan
Bitcoin’s interaction with the Realized Price of long-term holders’ UTXOs has historically been a pivotal market indicator, as it reflects the average acquisition cost of these holders. Bear markets typically commence when the price dips below the realized price of the 6-12 month cohort, indicating losses and potential distribution by these large investors. Currently, BTC is trading below the realized price of the 3-6 month cohort at $88K but is above the 6-12 month cohort’s realized price of $62K. This suggests that although the market is undergoing a deep correction, it is too early to confirm the onset of a bear market. Bitcoin is likely to continue its corrective retracement within this range until new demand enters the market. The $88K level remains a critical threshold, where a breakout above it could signal the start of a fresh uptrend.
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