Bitcoin’s prolonged decline over the past two months has sparked speculation about the end of the bull market and the potential start of a bear market. While numerous analysts continue to forecast the cryptocurrency’s short-term price movements, only on-chain data and metrics can provide a clear picture.
A weekly report from the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant suggests that the Bitcoin Bull Score Model can indicate whether the current downturn is just a temporary correction or the beginning of an extended decline. Unfortunately, this model doesn’t suggest a bullish outlook for BTC.
**The Bull Score Model**
According to CryptoQuant, the Bull Score Model evaluates the investment climate for BTC by analyzing nine on-chain indicators and one market metric. Each indicator serves as a binary measure of market conditions, assigned a value of 1 (bullish) or 0 (bearish) based on rules assessing network activity, market liquidity, demand, and investor behavior.
The metrics include the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, Bitcoin Profit and Loss Index, Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, and Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP). The Bitcoin Bull Score Model also incorporates indicators like the CryptoQuant Network Activity Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Growth, Trader On-chain Profit Margin, Trader Realized Price, and Technical Signal.
Currently, only two out of the ten metrics—Stablecoin Liquidity and Technical Signal—are showing bullish signals, indicating a predominantly bearish market. CryptoQuant notes that these conditions point to a lack of strong fundamentals needed to support and sustain a price rally or recovery.
“We can observe that the metrics have oscillated between bullish and bearish phases numerous times, with extended periods of green indicating strong bullish cycles and prolonged stretches of red corresponding to market downturns. Recently, a significant number of metrics have turned red, particularly since mid-February 2025,” the market analytics platform stated.
**Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle is Over**
Some metrics, such as the Network Activity Index, have been bearish since December 2024, indicating a sustained decrease in network activity. Overall, these metrics are at their least bullish state since January 2023.
The Bull Score Model measures the percentage of bullish metrics from 0 to 100, with lower values being bearish and higher values being bullish. During past bull markets, BTC experienced strong rallies with a Bull Score of 60 and above. However, whenever the Bull Score drops below 40, the cryptocurrency has faced prolonged downturns associated with bear markets.
Bitcoin’s Bull Score is currently at 20—its lowest level since January 2023—indicating a weak investment environment and low chances of a sustained rally in the near term.
Twitter Text: Understanding Bitcoin’s current market phase through CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Model. Only 20% of metrics are bullish now, suggesting limited chances for a short-term rally. 📉 #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BearMarket
