**Key Takeaways:**
– Nearly half (47%) of Polymarket bettors now anticipate a U.S. recession in 2025, a significant increase from 20% at the beginning of the year.
– Following Trump’s announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs, the Dow dropped 1,300 points, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also seeing substantial declines.
– Yale’s Budget Lab estimates that the increased prices due to these tariffs could cost American consumers between $2,700 and $3,400 annually.
Nearly half of the participants in a recent Polymarket poll predict an economic downturn for the U.S. in 2025. This decentralized prediction marketplace poll, initiated in January, shows that as of April 3, 47% of bettors foresee a recession. This figure increased from just 20% at the start of the poll, with predictions of a 33% economic downturn chance by March 28. This outlook comes a day after President Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, causing global concern.
Trump argues that his tariff policy will reduce reliance on foreign goods and boost manufacturing, but critics warn of negative consequences for trade and consumer costs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,300 points, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 decreased by over 4% and 3%, respectively. According to Yale University’s Budget Lab, the price increases could cost American consumers between $2,700 and $3,400. Despite potential economic difficulties for consumers, Trump remains optimistic about the tariff plan’s success.
BREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 is now 1.3% away from triggering a “circuit breaker,” which would pause trading for 15 minutes if the drop happens before 3:25 PM ET. More details in the thread below. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 3, 2025
