VanEck has projected that the United States could potentially reduce its national debt by $21 trillion over the next 24 years. The firm’s analysts suggest this could be accomplished by establishing a one million Bitcoin reserve within the next five years.
According to VanEck, if the value of Bitcoin increases to $21 million by 2049, a U.S. BTC reserve could significantly lessen the national debt. This would account for about 18% of the total U.S. debt at that time. “If the U.S. government follows the BITCOIN Act’s suggested path—accumulating 1 million BTC by 2029—our analysis indicates this reserve could offset around $21 trillion of national debt by 2049,” stated Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at the institution, in its latest report.
VanEck’s forecast is based on the assumption of Bitcoin’s price climbing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, rising from $100,000 to $21 million per BTC over the next 24 years. Meanwhile, the national debt is expected to grow at 5% CAGR, increasing from $36 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $116 trillion in the same period.
This prediction ties in with the BITCOIN Act proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis. Reacting to VanEck’s proposal, the senator posted on Twitter, “Good idea.” Lummis has been a strong advocate for the creation of a U.S. BTC reserve as a strategy to address the $36 trillion national debt and strengthen the U.S. dollar’s global position. She contends that the asset’s increasing value could assist in lowering the debt over the next 20 years. Lummis believes that establishing such a concept would correct past financial errors and alleviate economic pressures on younger generations. However, legislation to facilitate the creation of this reserve has yet to be assessed by the Senate or House.
The idea of a Bitcoin reserve is drawing international interest, with several governments evaluating its potential benefits. In Venezuela, opposition leader María Corina Machado supports integrating cryptocurrency into the national reserve, suggesting it could help recover lost wealth and support the nation’s most vulnerable citizens. Switzerland is also exploring this prospect, with its National Bank assessing Bitcoin’s utility as a backup asset alongside gold. Similarly, Hong Kong legislator Wu Jiezhuang proposed incorporating Bitcoin into the national financial reserves in December to bolster economic resilience.
However, the idea is not without its critics. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes recently dismissed the U.S. Bitcoin reserve plans as an impractical strategy serving political interests rather than ensuring financial stability.
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